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Violent Crime Trends in Higginsville, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Higginsville, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2010 and 2017, and dropping to zero reported incidents in 2014, 2020, and 2022. During this same period, the city's population showed slight variations, starting at 6,112 in 2010 and ending at 6,291 in 2022, representing a modest growth of about 2.9%.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. This statistic is particularly notable given the population fluctuations, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 people. The consistent zero percentage of state murder crimes indicates that Higginsville has not contributed to Missouri's murder statistics during this timeframe, suggesting a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some fluctuation over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2011, representing 0.26% of the state's total. In 2013, there was 1 reported case (0.06% of state total), and in 2016, again 1 case (0.05% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2011 at approximately 0.49 and decreased to about 0.17 in 2016. However, from 2017 to 2022, no rape cases were reported, indicating a positive trend in recent years.
Robbery trends in Higginsville have been consistently low, with zero reported incidents throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite population fluctuations, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 people and contributing 0% to the state's robbery figures. This consistent absence of robberies suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of property crimes involving force or threat.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents varied, with peaks of 5 cases in 2017 (0.03% of state total) and 3 cases in 2010, 2016, and 2019 (0.02% of state total in 2010 and 2019, 0.02% in 2016). The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at approximately 0.82 in 2017. However, there were also years with no reported aggravated assaults, such as 2014, 2020, and 2022, indicating fluctuations in this crime category.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with racial distribution. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 95% in 2014 to 89% in 2022, there was a slight increase in diversity. This period coincided with some fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that the overall crime rates remained relatively low throughout this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent low crime rates. Given the zero reported violent crimes in 2022 and the overall decreasing trend in recent years, the city may continue to experience very low levels of violent crime. However, occasional fluctuations, particularly in aggravated assaults, may occur based on historical patterns.
In summary, Higginsville has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with notable absences of murders and robberies. The most significant violent crime category has been aggravated assault, though even these incidents have been infrequent. The city's changing demographic composition coincided with some fluctuations in crime rates, but overall, Higginsville appears to be a safe community with promising prospects for maintaining low violent crime rates in the near future.
