Robbery trends in Hartford have remained relatively low and inconsistent. The city reported no robberies in 2010 and 2012, with the highest number recorded in 2014 and 2017 at 2 incidents each year, representing 0.05% and 0.07% of the state's total, respectively. By 2022, robberies had returned to zero. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.54 in 2014 and 2017 before dropping to 0 in 2022, reflecting the sporadic nature of this crime in the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Hartford. In 2010, there were 10 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.17% of the state's total. The number peaked at 20 incidents in 2017, representing 0.18% of the state's total. However, by 2022, aggravated assaults had significantly decreased to 3 incidents, or 0.03% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 2.85 in 2010 to a high of 5.03 in 2017, before decreasing to 0.80 in 2022. This substantial reduction in aggravated assaults has been a major contributor to the overall decline in violent crime in the city.

The changing racial demographics of Hartford appear to correlate with violent crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 76% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, and the black population increased from 16% to 18% during the same period, violent crime rates initially increased but then sharply declined. The Hispanic population also grew from 7% to 6% during this time. However, it is important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be influencing these trends.

Predictive models forecasting violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggest that the downward trend in violent crime is likely to continue, albeit at a slower rate. The model indicates that by 2029, Hartford may experience an average of 1-2 violent crimes per year, primarily consisting of aggravated assaults.

In conclusion, Hartford has demonstrated a significant overall reduction in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in aggravated assaults, which decreased both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals. The city has maintained a murder-free record throughout the analyzed period, while rape and robbery incidents have remained low and sporadic. These trends, combined with the changing demographic landscape, suggest that Hartford is becoming increasingly safer, with violent crime rates well below what might be expected for a city of its size and population density.