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Property Crime Trends in Arab, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Arab, Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 676 to 290, representing a 57.1% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 12,665 to 13,709, an 8.2% increase. This notable decline in property crime amidst population growth warrants a closer examination of specific crime categories and their relationships to demographic changes.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a dramatic decrease over time. In 2011, there were 165 burglaries, which dropped to just 48 in 2022, a 70.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.03 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 3.50 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.45% in 2011, peaking at 0.91% in 2021, and then dropping sharply to 0.42% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, its improvement relative to the state has been inconsistent.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decline. The number of incidents decreased from 460 in 2011 to 210 in 2022, a 54.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 36.32 to 15.32 over the same period. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.45% to 0.60%, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents decreased from 51 in 2011 to 32 in 2022, a 37.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 4.03 to 2.33. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, from a high of 0.86% in 2013 to a low of 0.34% in 2015, settling at 0.48% in 2022. This suggests that while overall numbers have decreased, the city's performance relative to the state has been inconsistent.
Arson data for the city is limited, with many years showing no available data. In 2011, there were 13 arson cases, representing 2.34% of state arsons. By 2022, this had dropped to just 1 case, or 0.19% of state arsons. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.03 in 2011 to 0.07 in 2022. While this represents a significant improvement, the limited data makes it difficult to establish a clear trend.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a steady increase in median income, which rose from $44,894 in 2013 to $51,913 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 71% and 75% from 2013 to 2022, which may have provided a level of community stability that helped reduce crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a continued decrease over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes could potentially drop to around 200 incidents annually, assuming current trends and demographic patterns persist. This would represent a further 31% decrease from 2022 levels.
In summary, Arab has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes across all categories from 2011 to 2022, despite population growth. This improvement, particularly notable in burglary and larceny-theft rates, appears to correlate with rising median incomes and stable home ownership rates. While the city's share of state crime has fluctuated in some categories, the overall trend is positive. If these trends continue, Arab could see further reductions in property crime rates, potentially positioning it as a model for small city crime reduction strategies in Alabama.
