Robbery trends show a general decline over the period. In 2010, there were 105 robberies, which decreased to 38 in 2022, a 63.8% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 2.09 in 2010 to 0.80 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies also decreased from 1.41% in 2010 to 0.74% in 2022, suggesting that robbery has become less prevalent in the city compared to the state average.

Aggravated assault cases have shown fluctuation but with an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 273 cases, which increased to 307 in 2022, a 12.5% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.44 in 2010 to 6.49 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases decreased slightly from 2.03% in 2010 to 1.28% in 2022, indicating that while the absolute number of cases has increased, the city's share relative to the state has decreased.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,753 per square mile in 2010 to 1,653 in 2022, there was a corresponding fluctuation in crime rates, with some crimes like robbery decreasing while others like aggravated assault increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between racial demographics and crime rates. As the Black population percentage remained relatively stable (43% in 2022), and the White population slightly decreased (from 48% in 2013 to 44% in 2022), violent crime rates showed various trends across different categories.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: Murder rates may stabilize around 6-8 cases per year. Rape cases could continue to increase, potentially reaching 20-25 cases annually. Robbery rates are likely to remain low, possibly stabilizing around 35-40 cases per year. Aggravated assault cases may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 330-350 cases annually.

In conclusion, Goldsboro has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others like rape and aggravated assault have worsened. The city's contribution to state crime percentages has generally decreased, suggesting that while local issues persist, they are not growing disproportionately compared to the rest of North Carolina. Future crime prevention strategies in Goldsboro should focus on addressing the rising trends in rape and aggravated assault while maintaining the positive developments in reducing robbery rates.