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Violent Crime Trends in Gardner, Kansas: A Growing City's Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Gardner, Kansas, a growing community located in Johnson County, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with the most recent data showing 38 incidents in 2022, a 26.7% increase from the 30 incidents reported in 2010. During this same period, the city's population grew significantly from 19,909 in 2010 to 26,417 in 2022, representing a 32.7% increase.
The murder rate in Gardner has remained consistently low, with only one reported case in 2017. This single incident represented 1% of the state's murders that year. Given the city's population growth, the murder rate per 1,000 people has effectively decreased over time. The stability of this low murder rate, despite population growth, suggests effective law enforcement and community safety measures.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, which increased to a peak of 9 cases in 2018, before declining to 4 cases again in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, with the highest rate in 2018 at 0.37 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to Gardner has generally increased, from 0.45% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, with a peak of 1.77% in 2020. This trend suggests that while the absolute numbers remain relatively low, the city's share of state rape cases has grown, potentially indicating a need for targeted prevention efforts.
Robbery trends in the city have been inconsistent. The number of robberies ranged from a low of 0 in 2022 to a high of 6 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2020 at 0.24 and dropped to 0 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state robberies spiked dramatically to 2.39% in 2020 before falling to 0% in 2022. This volatility suggests that robbery may be influenced by specific, short-term factors rather than long-term trends in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Gardner. The number of cases increased from 23 in 2010 to 34 in 2022, peaking at 46 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively stable, ranging from 1.16 to 1.83 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has generally increased, from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.45% in 2022, with a notable peak of 1.64% in 2020. This trend indicates that aggravated assault has become a more significant issue relative to state levels, potentially requiring increased attention from law enforcement and community programs.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,629 per square mile in 2010 to 2,162 per square mile in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that as the city becomes more densely populated, the likelihood of violent encounters may increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that Gardner may continue to see a slight increase in overall violent crime incidents, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. The rate of increase is expected to slow, potentially stabilizing around 45-50 total violent crimes per year, assuming current population growth trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Gardner has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns alongside significant population growth. While murder rates have remained exceptionally low, other forms of violent crime, particularly aggravated assault, have shown concerning upward trends relative to state levels. The city's rapid growth and increasing density appear to be contributing factors to these trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on crime prevention, especially targeting aggravated assaults, may be crucial in maintaining community safety as Gardner continues to expand and develop.
