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Violent Crime Trends in Atchison, Kansas: A Decade of Increasing Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Atchison, Kansas, a city with a rich history along the Missouri River, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 88.89%, from 18 to 34 incidents. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 3.78%, from 13,395 to 12,889 residents.
Murder trends in the city have remained relatively stable, with most years reporting zero murders. The only exceptions were in 2015 and 2017, when one murder was reported each year. This translates to a murder rate of 0.075 per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city was 0.99% in 2015 and 1% in 2017. Despite these isolated incidents, the overall murder rate remains low, indicating a generally safe environment in this aspect.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 3 reported rapes, which increased to 4 in 2022, representing a 33.33% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.22 in 2010 to 0.31 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's percentage of state rape cases increased significantly, from 0.34% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, peaking at 1.77% in 2020. This trend suggests that rape has become a more prevalent issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Robbery incidents have remained relatively low but volatile. The number of robberies fluctuated between 0 and 7 during the period, with 2 reported in both 2010 and 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.16 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies also increased from 0.14% to 0.28% over this period, indicating a slight worsening of the robbery situation relative to the state.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 13 reported cases, which more than doubled to 28 by 2022, representing a 115.38% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.97 in 2010 to 2.17 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases also increased from 0.21% to 0.37% during this period. This trend is particularly concerning as it indicates a substantial rise in serious violent confrontations within the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 88% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, while the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 3% to 6%. This demographic shift coincided with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, the city may see approximately 50 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This would represent a 47.06% increase from the 2022 figure of 34 incidents.
In summary, Atchison has experienced a concerning rise in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, despite a slight population decrease. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally increased across most categories. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address the rising violent crime rates and maintain the city's overall safety and quality of life.
