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Violent Crime Trends in Falmouth, Kentucky: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Falmouth, Kentucky, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes ranged from a low of 0 to a high of 9, while the population increased from 4,280 to 4,228, a slight decrease of 1.21%.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only one reported case in 2019. This single incident represented 0.59% of the state's murders that year, a significant spike for a city of this size. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.23 in 2019, dropping back to zero in subsequent years. This isolated event stands out against an otherwise murder-free record, suggesting it was an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Rape incidents have been sporadic, with single cases reported in 2011 and 2020. These occurrences translated to rates of 0.25 and 0.23 per 1,000 residents, respectively. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city fluctuated from 0.12% in 2011 to 0.15% in 2020. The infrequency of these crimes makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it does indicate that sexual violence is not a persistent problem in the community.
Robbery trends show more variation. The city experienced no robberies in most years, but saw spikes in 2012 (3 cases, 0.77 per 1,000 residents, 0.1% of state robberies), 2016 (1 case, 0.25 per 1,000, 0.03% of state), 2018 (1 case, 0.24 per 1,000, 0.08% of state), 2020 (2 cases, 0.46 per 1,000, 0.21% of state), and 2021 (2 cases, 0.45 per 1,000, 0.1% of state). These fluctuations suggest periodic increases in property crime, possibly linked to economic factors or specific incidents.
Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from 0 to 6 per year, with the highest rate occurring in 2020 (1.37 per 1,000 residents, 0.34% of state assaults). Notable years include 2010 (3 cases, 0.07% of state), 2015 (2 cases, 0.05% of state), and 2021 (4 cases, 0.06% of state). The trend shows intermittent spikes rather than a steady increase or decrease.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,810 per square mile in 2015 to 3,293 in 2021, violent crime incidents also saw an overall increase, peaking at 9 cases in 2020. Median rent, which rose from $335 in 2015 to $586 in 2021, does not show a clear correlation with crime rates. The racial distribution has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently above 97%, showing no significant correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed patterns, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching an average of 5-7 incidents per year. This forecast assumes continued population growth and stable economic conditions.
In summary, while Falmouth has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates, the overall numbers remain low for a city of its size. The most significant trend has been in aggravated assaults, which have shown periodic increases. The isolated murder case and sporadic nature of other violent crimes suggest that the city does not face a systemic violent crime problem. However, the projected slight increase in incidents calls for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain the generally low crime rates that characterize this Kentucky city.
