Motor vehicle theft in Mount Sterling has remained relatively stable over the years, with some fluctuations. The number of incidents decreased slightly from 17 in 2010 to 14 in 2022, a 17.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 1.09 to 0.81. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.38% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, suggesting that the city's performance in this category is roughly in line with state trends.

Arson incidents in Mount Sterling have been sporadic and relatively low in number. The city reported no arsons in 2010, 2014, 2020, 2021, and 2022. The highest number of arsons reported was 3 in both 2017 and 2018, representing 1.99% and 1.76% of state arsons respectively. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but the data suggests that arson is not a persistent problem in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 3,457 per square mile in 2010 to 3,853 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain public safety despite becoming more densely populated. Additionally, there appears to be a moderate positive correlation between median income and reduced property crime rates. As the median income rose from $43,514 in 2013 to $51,229 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 10-15 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may continue to decline but at a slower rate, potentially reaching around 180-200 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 12-16 incidents per year. Arson incidents are expected to remain low and sporadic.

In summary, Mount Sterling has made significant progress in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement has occurred despite population growth, suggesting effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while experiencing economic growth and increased population density is particularly noteworthy. As Mount Sterling continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends in property crime reduction will likely remain a key focus for local authorities and community leaders.