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Violent Crime Trends in Ellinwood: A Decade of Stability Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ellinwood, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 8 incidents in 2018 and a low of 0 in 2020. Over this period, the population grew from 1,928 in 2010 to 2,281 in 2022, representing an 18.3% increase.
The murder rate in this city has remained consistently at zero throughout the examined period. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has therefore remained at 0, and the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. This trend suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over the years. The city reported 1 case in 2011, 3 cases in 2012, and 1 case each in 2016 and 2019. In terms of percentage of state crime, these incidents represented 0.11% of Kansas' rape cases in 2011, 2016, and 2019, with a higher 0.36% in 2012. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 1.32 per 1,000 in 2012 when the population was 2,267. This suggests that while rape is not a persistent issue, there have been sporadic occurrences that warrant attention.
Robbery in the city has been rare, with only two reported incidents over the entire period - one in 2011 and another in 2012. These represented 0.07% of the state's robbery cases in both years. The rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.5 for both years. Since 2012, there have been no reported robberies, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents varied from year to year, with a notable spike of 8 cases in 2018, representing 0.13% of the state's aggravated assaults that year. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 3.15 in 2018. In 2022, there were 3 cases, or 1.32 per 1,000 people, accounting for 0.04% of the state's total. This fluctuation suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, its prevalence has not shown a consistent upward trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime incidents. For instance, the peak in violent crime in 2018 (8 incidents) coincided with one of the highest population densities (1,919 per square mile). However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, suggesting other factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the current pattern. Based on the historical data, we might expect an average of 2-4 violent crimes per year, predominantly aggravated assaults, with potential sporadic occurrences of rape or robbery. The murder rate is likely to remain at zero, given the consistent trend.
In summary, Ellinwood has maintained a relatively stable violent crime profile despite population growth. The absence of murders, infrequent robberies, and fluctuating but manageable levels of aggravated assault paint a picture of a community that, while not crime-free, has avoided severe escalation in violent criminal activity. The city's law enforcement and community leaders may want to focus on strategies to address aggravated assault, which remains the primary concern in the violent crime category.
