Motor vehicle theft trends have been variable. In 2010, there were 12 incidents, which increased to 12 in 2022, remaining constant in absolute numbers. However, when adjusted for population, the rate slightly increased from 0.9 to 0.93 per 1,000 people. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.23% in 2010, peaking at 0.76% in 2020, and returning to 0.23% in 2022.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but variable. In 2010, there were 3 incidents, which decreased to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.22 to 0.08. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.67% in 2010 to a peak of 1.48% in 2014, before settling at 0.35% in 2022.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $38,889 in 2017 to $49,598 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 368 to 283. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Atchison may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries are projected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 25 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 220 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may slightly increase to about 15 incidents per year, while arson cases are likely to remain low, averaging 1-2 incidents annually.

In summary, Atchison has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries. The relationship between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic improvements may play a role in crime reduction. While some fluctuations exist, the overall trend points towards a safer community with lower property crime rates in the coming years.