Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Eldon, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuation and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Eldon, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 24 incidents in 2010 to 12 in 2022, representing a 50% reduction. During this same period, the population experienced slight growth, increasing from 7,098 in 2010 to 7,201 in 2022, a 1.45% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only two recorded incidents over the 13-year period. These occurred in 2016 and 2019, each representing 0.22% of the state's total murders for their respective years. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.14 in both instances. Given the rarity of these events, it's challenging to establish a meaningful trend, but it's clear that murder is not a prevalent issue in this community.
Rape incidents have shown considerable variation over time. The number of reported rapes ranged from zero to seven cases per year, with the highest number recorded in 2022 (7 cases). This represents a significant increase from one case in 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.14 in 2020 to 0.97 in 2022. Notably, the percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city jumped from 0.05% in 2020 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Robbery rates in the city have remained low and stable. The highest number of robberies recorded was two per year, occurring in 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2018. In recent years (2020-2022), no robberies were reported. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has consequently decreased from 0.28 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery figures has been minimal, never exceeding 0.04% of the state total.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, but its prevalence has decreased over time. In 2010, there were 17 cases (2.39 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 5 cases in 2022 (0.69 per 1,000 people). This represents a 70.6% reduction in aggravated assaults. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures has also decreased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 1,996 per square mile in 2010 to 2,025 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in overall violent crime rates. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching an average of 3-4 cases per year. Rape incidents, given their recent spike, may stabilize around 4-5 cases annually. Robbery and murder rates are expected to remain very low, with potentially zero to one incident per year for each category.
In summary, Eldon has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults. While rape incidents have seen a recent increase, the overall violent crime rate has decreased significantly. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains low across all categories. These trends, if maintained, suggest a continuing improvement in public safety for Eldon residents in the coming years.
