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Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Hickman Mills, Kansas City
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Hickman Mills, a neighborhood in Kansas City, Missouri, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This analysis examines the evolving trends in homeownership rates, average home prices, and rent prices, reflecting broader economic shifts and local market conditions.
The homeownership rate in Hickman Mills has declined notably since 2013. In 2013, 46% of residents owned their homes, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 39%. This downward trend in homeownership coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. The average home price in Hickman Mills rose from $49,449 in 2013 to $164,116 in 2022, representing a 231% increase over nine years. This inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that rising property values may have made homeownership less accessible for many residents.
Federal interest rate trends have likely influenced homeownership patterns in Hickman Mills. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained extremely low, between 0.1% and 0.4%, and homeownership rates in Hickman Mills were relatively stable, ranging from 46% to 49%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% by 2022, homeownership rates in the neighborhood declined. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
As homeownership declined, the percentage of renters in Hickman Mills increased from 54% in 2013 to 61% in 2022. This shift towards renting coincided with a rise in average rent prices. The average rent increased from $893 per month in 2013 to $905 in 2022, a modest 1.3% increase over nine years. The peak in average rent was observed in 2019 at $1,013 per month, before declining slightly in subsequent years. The relatively stable rent prices, especially compared to the dramatic increase in home prices, may have contributed to the growing preference for renting in the neighborhood.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in Hickman Mills continued to evolve. The average home price reached $177,088 in 2023, a 7.9% increase from 2022, and further rose to $186,965 in 2024, representing a 5.6% annual increase. These increases occurred against a backdrop of significantly higher federal interest rates, which stood at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. Despite these higher rates, home prices in Hickman Mills continued to appreciate, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.
Predictive models suggest that average home prices in Hickman Mills may continue to rise over the next five years, albeit at a more moderate pace. The rate of increase is expected to slow down, potentially reaching around $220,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also projected to increase, potentially reaching approximately $1,100 per month by 2029. However, these projections are subject to various economic factors and local market conditions.
In summary, Hickman Mills has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting over the past decade, driven by rapidly increasing home prices and changing interest rate environments. While average rent prices have remained relatively stable, the substantial appreciation in home values has reshaped the neighborhood's housing landscape. As the area continues to evolve, balancing affordability with property value growth will likely remain a key challenge for this Kansas City neighborhood.
