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Violent Crime Trends in Des Peres, Missouri: A Decade of Change in a St. Louis Suburb
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Des Peres, Missouri, a small suburban community in St. Louis County, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime over the years. With a population of 9,713 in 2022, the city saw an increase in total violent crimes from 6 in 2010 to 13 in 2022, representing a 116.67% increase. During the same period, the population grew by 9.95%, from 8,834 to 9,713 residents.
Murder trends in the city have remained consistently low, with no reported cases throughout the analyzed period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the murder rate, despite population growth, indicates a relatively safe environment for residents. The city's contribution to the state's overall murder rate has consistently been 0%, suggesting that Des Peres has maintained a lower murder rate compared to other areas in Missouri.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, representing 0.19% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.23. By 2022, the number of reported rapes remained at 2, but due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly to 0.21. The city's contribution to the state's rape cases increased to 0.09% in 2022, indicating a slight rise in the city's share of these crimes relative to the rest of Missouri.
Robbery trends show some variation over time. In 2010, there were 3 reported robberies, representing 0.05% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.34. By 2022, the number of robberies doubled to 6, with the rate per 1,000 people increasing to 0.62. The city's contribution to the state's robbery cases also increased significantly to 0.2% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate rise in robberies compared to other areas in Missouri.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase from 2010 to 2022. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, representing 0.01% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.11 per 1,000 people. By 2022, the number of cases increased to 5, with the rate per 1,000 people rising to 0.51. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases increased to 0.03% in 2022, indicating a growth in these incidents relative to the rest of Missouri.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, we observe a potential relationship between the increase in violent crimes and the slight decrease in the white population percentage. From 2013 to 2022, the white population decreased from 96% to 89%, while the total number of violent crimes increased. This suggests that changing demographics might have some influence on crime rates, although further analysis would be needed to establish a definitive causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The model suggests that by 2029, the city may experience approximately 16-18 violent crimes annually, with robbery and aggravated assault potentially seeing the most significant increases.
In summary, Des Peres has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. While the murder rate has remained at zero, other violent crimes have shown upward trends. The city's contribution to state-level crime statistics has generally increased, particularly for robberies. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest that the community may face growing challenges in maintaining its historically low crime rates. As the city continues to evolve, local authorities may need to adapt their crime prevention and community engagement strategies to address these emerging patterns.
