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Violent Crime Trends in Daleville, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Daleville, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 17 incidents in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 41.2% rise. During this same period, the population saw a slight decline, from 6,398 in 2010 to 6,359 in 2022, a decrease of 0.61%.
Examining murder trends, the city experienced minimal occurrences. Only one murder was reported in 2012 and another in 2021, representing 0.39% and 0.56% of the state's total murders in those years, respectively. Given the small population, these incidents translate to rates of 0.15 and 0.16 per 1,000 residents in 2012 and 2021. The infrequency of murders suggests they are isolated events rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Rape cases in the city showed variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2013, representing 0.43% of the state's total. This equates to a rate of 0.77 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, reported rapes decreased to 2, or 0.23% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.31 per 1,000 residents. This indicates a general downward trend in rape occurrences relative to the population.
Robbery incidents fluctuated but remained relatively low. The highest number was 3 in 2012, representing 0.07% of the state's total. In 2022, there were 4 robberies, accounting for 0.31% of the state's total. This translates to a rate increase from 0.46 per 1,000 residents in 2012 to 0.63 per 1,000 in 2022, indicating a slight upward trend in robbery rates.
Aggravated assault cases showed the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. The highest number was 31 in 2011, representing 0.31% of the state's total, or 4.83 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, there were 18 cases, accounting for 0.16% of the state's total, or 2.83 per 1,000 residents. Despite the overall decrease, the trend has been inconsistent, with notable spikes in certain years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between violent crime rates and population density. As population density decreased from 462 per square mile in 2017 to 449 in 2022, violent crimes per capita showed a slight increase. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between the rise in median rent from $676 in 2017 to $738 in 2022 and the increase in violent crimes, particularly robberies.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight upward trend in overall violent crimes. Based on historical patterns, we project an increase to approximately 28-30 violent crimes annually by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely continuing to be the most prevalent category.
In summary, Daleville has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with a recent trend towards a slight increase. While murder rates remain low, there's been a noticeable uptick in robberies and a variable pattern in aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and economic factors like rising rents, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies to address the specific challenges facing the community.
