Robbery trends show a general decline over time. In 2011, there were 8 robberies (0.18% of state robberies), which decreased to 6 in 2022 (0.46% of state robberies). The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.33 in 2011 to 0.22 in 2022. However, the percentage of state robberies attributed to the city has increased, suggesting that while local robbery rates have improved, they haven't decreased as rapidly as in other parts of the state.

Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 17 cases (0.28% of state assaults), which increased to 21 in 2021 (0.25% of state assaults), before dropping to 8 in 2022 (0.07% of state assaults). The rate per 1,000 people varied from 0.71 in 2010 to a high of 0.85 in 2014, ending at 0.29 in 2022. The recent sharp decrease in 2022 is notable and warrants further monitoring to determine if it's an anomaly or the start of a new trend.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,052 per square mile in 2010 to 1,221 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly in categories like rape and aggravated assault. However, this correlation is not consistent across all crime types, as robbery rates decreased despite population growth.

The racial demographics of Cullman have remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing about 90-92% of the total. There doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between racial distribution and violent crime trends in this case.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Cullman may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents per year. Rape and aggravated assault cases are likely to continue their upward trend, while robbery rates may stabilize or continue to decrease slightly. Murder rates are expected to remain low and sporadic.

In summary, Cullman has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime trends against the backdrop of significant population growth. While some crime categories like robbery have shown improvement, others like rape and aggravated assault have presented challenges. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should focus on addressing the rising trends in these areas while maintaining the positive progress made in reducing robberies and keeping murder rates low.