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Violent Crime Trends in Crystal City, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Crystal City, Missouri, a small municipality covering 4.52 square miles, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 19 to 7, representing a 63.2% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 7,049 to 6,442, a 8.6% decrease.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with only two reported cases in 2019, representing 0.45% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to approximately 0.29 murders per 1,000 residents in 2019. In all other years, there were no reported murders, indicating an overall safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2011, accounting for 0.26% of the state's total. This equates to about 0.46 rapes per 1,000 residents. By 2022, there was 1 reported rape, or 0.05% of the state's total, translating to 0.16 per 1,000 residents. This suggests a general downward trend in rape occurrences relative to the population.
Robbery rates have remained relatively low but fluctuating. The peak was in 2014 with 4 robberies, representing 0.08% of the state's total and approximately 0.66 robberies per 1,000 residents. In 2022, there was 1 reported robbery, or 0.03% of the state's total, equating to 0.16 per 1,000 residents. This indicates a general decrease in robbery rates over time.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. The highest number was 22 in 2015, accounting for 0.14% of the state's total and about 3.23 assaults per 1,000 residents. By 2022, this had decreased to 5 aggravated assaults, or 0.03% of the state's total, translating to 0.78 per 1,000 residents. This represents a substantial decline in aggravated assault rates.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's changing racial composition and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 96% in 2019 to 87% in 2022, and the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 1% to 10%, violent crime rates showed a general decline. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be influencing these trends.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that violent crime rates in Crystal City may continue to decrease moderately over the next five years, reaching approximately 4-5 total violent crimes annually by 2029. This forecast suggests a potential further improvement in public safety, assuming current trends and conditions persist.
In summary, Crystal City has experienced an overall decrease in violent crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2022, despite some fluctuations. The most significant reductions were seen in aggravated assaults and robberies. These trends, coupled with the changing demographics, paint a picture of a city that is evolving in terms of both population composition and public safety. As Crystal City moves forward, maintaining and building upon these positive trends in crime reduction will be crucial for the community's well-being and development.
