Robbery trends show more variability. The number of robberies peaked at 13 in 2017, representing 0.46 incidents per 1,000 residents and 0.23% of state robberies. However, by 2022, this had decreased to 3 incidents (0.10 per 1,000 residents and 0.1% of state robberies). This significant reduction suggests improved safety measures or law enforcement effectiveness in recent years.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents rose from 8 in 2010 to a peak of 22 in 2021, before dropping to 7 in 2022. This translates to a rate increase from 0.29 to 0.76 per 1,000 residents from 2010 to 2021, followed by a sharp decrease to 0.24 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has generally remained below 0.1%, with a notable spike to 0.13% in 2021.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,671 per square mile in 2010 to 2,839 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults, until the sharp decrease in 2022. This suggests that increased urbanization may have some impact on crime rates, though other factors are likely at play.

The racial distribution of the city has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the white population from 75% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, and small increases in Asian and Black populations. This gradual diversification does not seem to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Creve Coeur may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low compared to national averages. By 2029, we might expect to see murder rates continuing to be rare, with possibly 0-1 incidents per year; rape incidents potentially stabilizing around 1-3 cases annually; robbery rates likely to remain low, possibly between 3-7 incidents per year; and aggravated assaults may show the most variability, potentially ranging from 7-15 incidents annually.

In summary, Creve Coeur has maintained a relatively safe environment despite its population growth. The city has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. However, the overall violent crime rate remains low, particularly for more serious offenses like murder. The recent sharp decrease in violent crimes in 2022 is a positive sign, though continued monitoring and community engagement will be crucial to maintain this trend. The city's ability to keep crime rates low while experiencing population growth and increased density is noteworthy and suggests effective law enforcement and community safety measures.