Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Breckenridge Hills: A Decade of Demographic Shifts and Rising Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Breckenridge Hills, a city in Missouri, has witnessed a notable increase in violent crime rates over the past decade, despite modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes rose from 26 to 43, marking a 65.38% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 4,758 to 4,897, a 2.92% increase.
Murder rates in Breckenridge Hills have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. However, isolated incidents occurred in 2011, 2017, 2018, and 2022, each reporting one murder. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2017 at 0.41, coinciding with the city's lowest population during the studied period. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has been minimal, reaching a maximum of 0.4% in 2017.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, ranging from zero to three cases annually. The highest number of rapes (3) was reported in 2011, resulting in a rate of 0.62 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has been relatively low, peaking at 0.26% in 2011. In recent years (2020-2022), the numbers have remained low, with 0-2 cases reported annually.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the studied period. The highest number of robberies (13) occurred in 2013, with a rate of 2.68 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this had decreased to 4 incidents, or 0.82 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has also declined, from a high of 0.26% in 2013 to 0.13% in 2022.
Aggravated assaults have shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 18 reported cases, which rose to 37 in 2022, a 105.56% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.78 in 2010 to 7.56 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has also risen, from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022. This trend represents the primary driver of the overall increase in violent crime in the city.
A correlation appears to exist between the city's changing racial demographics and the increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults. From 2013 to 2022, the white population decreased from 55% to 42%, while the Hispanic population increased from 7% to 23%. This demographic shift coincides with the rise in aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and multiple factors likely contribute to crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued increase in violent crimes, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 60-65 annually, with aggravated assaults accounting for the majority. However, murder, rape, and robbery rates are expected to remain relatively stable or show slight decreases.
In summary, Breckenridge Hills has experienced a concerning increase in violent crime over the past decade, primarily due to a rise in aggravated assaults. While other violent crime categories have remained relatively stable or decreased, the significant uptick in assaults warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders. The changing demographic landscape of the city may be influencing these trends, but a comprehensive approach considering multiple factors will be necessary to address and potentially reverse this trend in the coming years.
