Robbery trends show a general decline over time. The highest number of robberies (6) was reported in 2012, equating to 0.40 robberies per 1,000 people. By 2020, this had decreased to 2 incidents or 0.14 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.06% in 2012 and falling to 0.03% by 2020. This downward trend in robberies is a positive sign for public safety in the community.

Aggravated assault has shown the most variability among violent crimes in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 7 in 2013 to a high of 43 in 2014. The rate per 1,000 people correspondingly fluctuated between 0.46 and 2.74. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults peaked at 0.39% in 2014 but has since decreased, standing at 0.08% in 2020. This volatility suggests that aggravated assault remains a key area for law enforcement focus.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased slightly from 558 people per square mile in 2010 to 556 in 2020, violent crime numbers did not show a consistent corresponding trend. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently around 88% and the black population around 6-7%, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Conneaut may see a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The murder rate is likely to remain low, with potential years of zero incidents interspersed with rare occurrences. Rape and robbery rates are expected to stabilize at lower levels compared to the peaks seen in the early 2010s. Aggravated assault, given its historical volatility, may continue to fluctuate but potentially with lower peaks than those observed in 2014.

In summary, Conneaut has experienced varying trends across different categories of violent crime over the past decade. While isolated incidents of murder have occurred, they remain rare. Rape and robbery rates have shown overall decreases, which is encouraging for public safety. The fluctuating nature of aggravated assaults presents the most significant challenge for law enforcement and community leaders. As the city moves forward, continued focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for aggravated assaults, will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in Conneaut.