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Violent Crime Trends in Coaling, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Coaling, Alabama, a small city with a population of 3,596 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2012 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes varied, starting at 10 in 2012, peaking at 16 in 2015, and then decreasing to 6 in 2018, representing a 40% overall decrease. During this same period, the population declined from 3,361 in 2012 to 3,127 in 2018, before rising again to 3,596 in 2022, showing a complex demographic pattern.
Regarding murder trends, the city maintained a remarkably low rate, with zero murders reported from 2012 to 2016. In 2017, there was a single murder case, which represented 0.37% of the state's total murders that year. This isolated incident resulted in a rate of 0.34 murders per 1,000 people. However, the murder rate returned to zero in 2018, indicating that this was likely an anomaly rather than a trend.
Rape cases in the city showed some variability. The number of reported rapes ranged from 0 to 5 between 2012 and 2018. The highest incidence was in 2014 with 5 cases, representing 0.4% of the state's total. This translated to a rate of 1.45 rapes per 1,000 people. By 2018, the number had decreased to 2 cases, or 0.18% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.64 per 1,000 people. This indicates a general downward trend in rape cases over the observed period.
Robbery incidents remained consistently low throughout the period. The city reported either 0 or 1 robbery per year from 2012 to 2018. In years when a robbery occurred, it represented between 0.02% to 0.03% of the state's total robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.32 (in 2018), demonstrating that robbery was not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault was the most common violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated, peaking at 13 in 2015 (3.86 per 1,000 people) and dropping to 3 in 2018 (0.96 per 1,000 people). The percentage of state total for aggravated assaults ranged from 0.03% to 0.11%, with the highest proportion occurring in 2014 and 2015. The overall trend shows a decrease in aggravated assaults, particularly from 2015 to 2018.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 670 people per square mile in 2012 to 623 in 2018, there was a corresponding decrease in total violent crimes. Additionally, the racial composition of the city showed some correlation with crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 84% in 2015 to 90% in 2019, there was a general decrease in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Coaling may continue to see a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The city is likely to maintain its low murder and robbery rates, while aggravated assaults may continue to decline gradually. However, rape cases might fluctuate but are expected to remain relatively low.
In summary, Coaling has demonstrated a generally improving safety profile over the observed period. The most significant changes were seen in the reduction of aggravated assaults and the maintenance of low rates for other violent crimes. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics, suggest a community that has become increasingly secure. As Coaling continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends in violent crime reduction will be crucial for the city's overall quality of life and attractiveness to current and potential residents.
