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Property Crime Trends in Evergreen, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Evergreen, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decline in total property crimes, dropping from 188 incidents in 2010 to 32 in 2022, representing a substantial 83% decrease. This dramatic reduction occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city's population decreasing from 5,661 in 2010 to 5,095 in 2022, a 10% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 60 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 6 in 2022, marking a 90% reduction. When considering population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.6 in 2010 to 1.2 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It peaked at 0.29% in 2017 before dropping sharply to 0.05% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement has been even more pronounced when compared to state-wide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 124 reported cases, which dropped to 20 in 2022, representing an 84% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 21.9 in 2010 to 3.9 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny theft remained relatively stable between 0.16% and 0.19% from 2010 to 2017, but then dropped significantly to 0.04% by 2022. This indicates that the city has outpaced the state in reducing larceny theft incidents in recent years.
Motor vehicle theft trends in the city have been more volatile. From 4 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 19 in 2014, before decreasing to 6 in 2022. Despite the overall increase from 2010 to 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally increased from 0.7 to 1.2. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.27% in 2014 before settling at 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, the city has managed to keep it relatively controlled compared to state-wide trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 2 cases in 2011 and 1 in 2021. This scarcity of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $19,116 in 2013 to $31,316 in 2022, property crime rates decreased significantly. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Population density also shows a correlation with property crime rates. As the density decreased from 286 people per square mile in 2010 to 258 in 2022, property crimes also declined. This could indicate that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime opportunities.
Racial distribution trends show a slight increase in the Black population percentage from 63% in 2013 to 67% in 2022, while the White population percentage decreased from 34% to 32%. However, there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between these racial distribution changes and property crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to decrease over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes could potentially drop below 20 incidents per year if current trends persist. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors could influence future crime rates.
In summary, Evergreen has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny theft. The city has outperformed state-wide trends in several categories, suggesting effective local crime prevention strategies. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates points to the potential impact of economic factors on crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing persistent challenges like motor vehicle theft will be crucial for continued improvement in public safety.
