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Violent Crime Trends in Carthage, NC: A Decade of Low Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carthage, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, with a peak of 10 incidents in 2015 and a low of 3 in 2016. Over this period, the population grew from 6,833 in 2010 to 7,924 in 2022, representing a 15.97% increase.
Examining murder trends, Carthage has maintained an exceptionally low rate, with only one reported case in 2010 and no murders in subsequent years through 2022. This translates to a murder rate of 0.15 per 1,000 residents in 2010, dropping to zero thereafter. The percentage of state murders attributable to Carthage was 0.4% in 2010, also falling to zero in following years. This consistent absence of murders speaks to the relative safety of the community in terms of lethal violence.
Rape statistics for Carthage were not consistently reported, with data available only for recent years. In 2019, there was 1 reported rape (0.13 per 1,000 residents), increasing to 2 cases in both 2020 and 2022 (0.26 and 0.25 per 1,000 residents, respectively). The percentage of state rapes attributed to Carthage rose from 0.06% in 2019 to 0.1% in 2022. This upward trend, while concerning, should be interpreted cautiously given the small numbers involved and the limited historical data available.
Robbery incidents in the city have shown a declining trend. From a high of 3 cases in both 2010 and 2011 (0.44 and 0.42 per 1,000 residents), robberies decreased to zero reported cases in 2020 and 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery figures peaked at 0.05% in 2015 and fell to 0% in recent years. This decline in robberies suggests an improvement in property-related violent crime within the community.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated over the years, with a notable spike in 2018 when 9 cases were reported (1.11 per 1,000 residents). However, by 2022, this number had decreased to 3 cases (0.38 per 1,000 residents). The city's share of state aggravated assaults peaked at 0.07% in 2018 but dropped to 0.01% by 2022. This recent decline indicates a positive trend in reducing serious violent confrontations within the community.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the overall number of violent crimes, though this correlation is not consistent across all years. The racial composition of Carthage has remained relatively stable, with the white population constituting the majority (77% in 2022), showing no strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Carthage may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low. By 2029, assuming current trends continue, the city might expect to see between 4 to 8 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults potentially remaining the most common type of violent offense.
In summary, Carthage has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly with the consistent absence of murders and the recent decline in robberies. While there have been fluctuations in aggravated assaults and a slight increase in reported rapes, the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low for a community of its size. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing population growth speaks to effective law enforcement and community cohesion in Carthage.
