Robbery trends in Carrollton have been sporadic. The city reported 1 robbery in 2010, peaked at 3 in 2015, and then recorded no robberies in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was 0.24 in 2010, reached 0.73 in 2015, and then dropped to 0 in recent years. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has been minimal, with the highest percentage at 0.05% in 2015 and 0% in most recent years, indicating a positive trend in robbery prevention.

Aggravated assault cases have shown the most significant fluctuations. From 2 cases in 2010, the number rose dramatically to 32 in 2018, before decreasing to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.49 in 2010 to 8.16 in 2018, then decreased to 0.80 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases peaked at 0.19% in 2018 but has since declined to 0.02% in 2022. This volatile trend suggests periods of increased violence followed by successful intervention strategies.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 985 per square mile in 2010 to 897 in 2022, there was an overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. This counterintuitive trend suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates in the city.

The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 94% in 2013 to 91% in 2022. During this period, there was a small increase in Hispanic population from 2% to 4%, and in those identifying as two or more races from 2% to 4%. These demographic shifts coincide with the fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly the spike in aggravated assaults in 2018, suggesting a potential correlation between changing demographics and crime patterns.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it is estimated that violent crime rates in Carrollton may stabilize or slightly decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). The city's proactive measures in recent years, as evidenced by the reduction in aggravated assaults and robberies, suggest a potential for maintaining lower crime rates. However, the variability in past trends makes long-term predictions challenging.

In summary, Carrollton has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assaults showing the most significant variations. The city has successfully maintained low murder and robbery rates while grappling with occasional spikes in rapes and aggravated assaults. The relationship between demographic changes, population density, and crime rates highlights the complex nature of urban safety dynamics in Carrollton. Moving forward, continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in this Missouri community.