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Property Crime Trends in Rich Hill, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rich Hill, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. During this period, the city experienced significant fluctuations in both property crime rates and population. The total number of property crimes decreased from 28 in 2010 to 19 in 2022, representing a 32.14% reduction. Concurrently, the population decreased slightly from 2,343 in 2010 to 2,211 in 2022, a 5.63% decline.
Burglary trends in Rich Hill show a notable decrease over time. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries reported, which dropped to 8 in 2022, a 42.86% decrease. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.97 in 2010 to 3.62 in 2022. Despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that burglaries may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft also showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 13 reported cases, which decreased to 10 in 2022, a 23.08% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.55 in 2010 to 4.52 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, changing from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that the local trend aligns with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in Rich Hill remained relatively low throughout the period. There was 1 reported case in both 2010 and 2022, maintaining a consistent rate of 0.45 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.00% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime remained minimal in the local context.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic, with no reported cases in most years. The highest number was 2 cases in 2011, representing 0.21% of state arson cases. By 2022, there were no reported arson cases, indicating a complete elimination of this crime type in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $39,579 in 2016 to $48,062 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. However, the relationship is not perfectly linear, suggesting other factors are at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that burglaries may decrease to around 6-7 cases annually, larceny thefts might stabilize at 8-9 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low at 0-1 cases annually. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously due to the relatively small numbers involved and potential unforeseen factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, Rich Hill has shown an overall improvement in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, with decreases in most categories despite some fluctuations. The most significant reductions were seen in burglaries and larceny thefts, while motor vehicle thefts remained low and arson cases were virtually eliminated. These trends, coupled with the slight population decrease and increasing median income, suggest a generally improving security situation in the city. However, the city's share of state crimes in some categories has increased slightly, indicating that local improvements may be outpacing statewide trends in certain areas.
