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Violent Crime Trends in Bowling Green, Missouri: A Decade of Change Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bowling Green, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes in this small city increased significantly, rising from 0 in 2010 to 31 in 2020, representing a substantial percentage increase. This trend occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 8,753 in 2010 to 6,229 in 2022, a reduction of approximately 28.8%.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with no reported cases throughout the period from 2010 to 2020. This stability in the face of overall violent crime increases and population decline suggests that the city has managed to avoid the most severe form of violent crime. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this period.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2012, there was 1 reported case, representing 0.08% of the state's total. The rate increased slightly to 2 cases in 2014, accounting for 0.11% of state cases, before dropping back to 1 case in 2020 (0.05% of state total). When adjusted for population, the rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.12 in 2012 to 0.15 in 2020, despite the overall number of cases remaining low. This suggests a slight upward trend in the rape rate relative to the declining population.
Robbery trends in the city have been sporadic. There were no reported robberies in 2010, but 1 case was reported in 2011 (0.02% of state total), and 2 cases in 2015 (0.04% of state total). In 2018, there were again 2 robberies (0.04% of state total), but by 2020, the number had dropped back to zero. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.28 in 2018 before falling to zero in 2020. This volatility in robbery rates may be attributed to the small population size, where individual incidents can significantly impact percentages.
Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in the city. From 0 cases in 2010, the number rose to 4 in 2011 (0.03% of state total), then to 25 in 2017 (0.14% of state total), and reached 30 cases in 2020 (0.16% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.5 in 2011 to 4.38 in 2020, a substantial rise that outpaced the population decline. This trend suggests that aggravated assault has become a growing concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates, particularly aggravated assault. As the population density decreased from 3,254 per square mile in 2010 to 2,316 in 2022, violent crime rates, especially aggravated assault, increased significantly. This could indicate that the social fabric of the community may be under strain as the population declines.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see aggravated assault cases reach approximately 40-45 per year if current trends continue. The overall violent crime rate could potentially increase to around 45-50 incidents annually, with aggravated assault remaining the primary contributor.
In summary, Bowling Green has experienced a notable increase in violent crime, primarily driven by a rise in aggravated assaults, despite a declining population. This trend, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of decreasing population density, suggests a complex interplay of social and economic factors affecting community safety. As the city moves forward, addressing the root causes of aggravated assault will likely be crucial in reversing the upward trend in violent crime.
