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Violent Crime Trends in Bismarck, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bismarck, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 2,091 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 0 to 7, representing a significant change given the city's size. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, growing slightly from 2,137 to 2,091 residents.
The murder rate in Bismarck has remained consistently at zero throughout the reported years, from 2010 to 2022. This absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the small population size. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently been zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this period. This trend suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides, which is particularly positive for a small community.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over time. In 2012, there was one reported rape, representing 0.08% of the state's total. The city then saw no reported rapes until 2017 when two cases were reported, accounting for 0.09% of the state's total. By 2022, this number decreased to one reported case, or 0.05% of the state's total. When considering the population, the rape rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2017 at approximately 0.93 and decreased to about 0.48 per 1,000 in 2022. These fluctuations, while concerning, should be interpreted cautiously given the small population size where a single incident can significantly affect the rate.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in Bismarck throughout the reported period. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported robberies. This consistent absence of robbery cases suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant concern in the community. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's robbery statistics during this time.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were no reported cases, but by 2015, this number had increased to 11 incidents, representing 0.07% of the state's total. The rate fluctuated in subsequent years, with 4 cases in 2016 (0.02% of state total), 8 cases in 2017 (0.05% of state total), and 6 cases in 2022 (0.03% of state total). The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2015 at approximately 5.56 and decreased to about 2.87 per 1,000 in 2022. This trend suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, there has been some improvement in recent years.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assault, and changes in racial demographics. From 2013 to 2022, the white population percentage decreased from 96% to 87%, while the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 1% to 7%. This demographic shift coincided with the rise in violent crime incidents, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Bismarck may see a slight increase in overall violent crime incidents, potentially reaching 8-9 cases annually. This projection is based on the historical trend of fluctuating but generally increasing violent crime numbers over the past decade.
In summary, Bismarck has experienced a notable increase in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. While the city has maintained a zero murder rate and low robbery incidents, the fluctuations in rape cases and the persistent presence of aggravated assaults warrant attention. The changing demographic composition of the city appears to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting a complex interplay between population dynamics and public safety. As Bismarck continues to evolve, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for maintaining community well-being and ensuring a safe environment for all residents.
