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Property Crime Trends in High Hill, Missouri: A Small City's Shifting Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
High Hill, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. With a population of 318 in 2022, this small community has experienced fluctuations in both its demographic makeup and crime rates over the years. The total number of property crimes decreased from 2 in 2010 to 0 in 2011, representing a 100% reduction. This change occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 21.24% from 386 in 2010 to 318 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city show a complete elimination of reported cases. In 2010, there was 1 burglary reported, which equated to a rate of 2.59 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2011, no burglaries were reported, resulting in a 100% decrease. This change is particularly noteworthy given the city's small population, where even a single incident can significantly impact crime rates. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to the city remained at 0% throughout the recorded period, indicating that burglary in this community had minimal impact on state-wide statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city increased from 1 case in 2010 to 3 cases in 2011. This represents a 200% increase in raw numbers. When adjusted for population, the rate of larceny-theft rose from 2.59 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 8.02 per 1,000 residents in 2011. Despite this increase, the city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft statistics remained at 0%, suggesting that even with the rise, the impact on broader state crime figures was negligible.
Motor vehicle theft and arson incidents were not reported in either 2010 or 2011, maintaining a consistent zero rate per 1,000 residents. This absence of reported cases for both crime types over the two-year period suggests that these particular property crimes were not significant issues for the community during this time frame.
An examination of correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 839 per square mile in 2010 to 691 per square mile in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime. Concurrently, median income saw a substantial increase from $37,187 in 2013 to $70,415 in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased slightly from 66% in 2013 to 58% in 2022, but this change does not appear to have a strong correlation with property crime trends given the limited data available.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited historical data and the small number of incidents. However, based on the available information, it's reasonable to project that property crime rates will likely remain low, with potential fluctuations due to the small population size where individual incidents can have a significant impact on overall rates.
In summary, High Hill has experienced a notable reduction in property crime from 2010 to 2011, with burglary being eliminated and larceny-theft showing a temporary increase. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime statistics remains minimal. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and stable, low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, suggest a generally improving safety profile for the community. However, the small population size means that even minor changes in crime incidents can result in significant percentage shifts, warranting continued monitoring of these trends in the context of the city's evolving demographic and economic landscape.
