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Violent Crime Trends in Berwyn Heights: A Decade of Low Homicide Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Berwyn Heights in Maryland presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a low of 4 incidents in 2011 and a high of 14 in 2018. Over this period, the population grew steadily from 3,171 in 2010 to 3,413 in 2019, representing a 7.6% increase. This demographic growth provides important context for analyzing the city's crime patterns.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only one reported case in 2012, representing 0.41% of the state's murders that year. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.31 murders per 1,000 residents. In all other years from 2010 to 2019, there were no reported murders, indicating an exceptionally safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. Data is only available for two years: 2015 and 2018. In 2015, there was one reported rape, accounting for 0.22% of the state's total. In 2018, two rapes were reported, representing 0.34% of the state's cases. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.30 in 2015 and 0.59 in 2018. Given the limited data, it's challenging to establish a clear trend, but the low numbers suggest that rape is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Robbery trends show more variation over the years. The highest number of robberies occurred in 2018 with 11 incidents, representing 0.18% of the state's total. This spike is notable compared to the average of about 4-5 robberies in other years. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 3.25 in 2018, significantly higher than the rate of 2.21 per 1,000 in 2010. Despite this peak, the overall trend doesn't show a consistent increase, with fluctuations throughout the decade.
Aggravated assault cases have remained relatively low, with a peak of 6 incidents in 2015, representing 0.09% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents for aggravated assault was highest in 2015 at 1.81, but generally remained below 1 per 1,000 in most years. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault has consistently been low, never exceeding 0.09%, indicating that the city contributes minimally to the state's overall aggravated assault figures.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between the increase in population density and the fluctuation in violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 4,563 per square mile in 2010 to 4,911 per square mile in 2019, there was a general, though inconsistent, upward trend in total violent crimes. Additionally, the rise in median rent from $1,731 in 2013 to $2,091 in 2019 coincides with some of the higher crime years, particularly 2018, suggesting a possible link between economic pressures and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to potentially stabilize around 8-10 incidents annually, assuming current socio-economic conditions persist. This prediction takes into account the historical fluctuations and the gradual population increase.
In summary, Berwyn Heights has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant concern appears to be robberies, which have shown the most variation and highest numbers. Murder rates remain exceptionally low, while rape and aggravated assault incidents, though present, do not show alarming trends. The city's contribution to state crime percentages is minimal across all categories, suggesting that it remains a comparatively safe community within Maryland.
