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Violent Crime Trends in Takoma Park: A Decade of Fluctuations and Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Takoma Park, Maryland, a small city of just 2.1 square miles, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 19.7%, from 76 to 61 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 6.1%, from 18,615 to 19,752 residents, indicating a general trend of improved safety relative to population growth.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were isolated cases in 2013, 2014, and 2016, each reporting one murder, and a spike in 2020 with two murders. This translates to a rate of 0.10 murders per 1,000 people in 2020, up from 0 in 2010. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city jumped significantly in 2020 to 0.67%, a stark increase from previous years where it was typically 0% or around 0.4%. This sudden rise, while concerning, should be viewed in the context of the city's historically low murder rates.
Rape incidents have shown fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported rapes, which increased to 8 in 2020. This represents a rise from 0.11 to 0.41 rapes per 1,000 people. The city's share of state rape cases also increased dramatically, from 0.47% in 2010 to 61.54% in 2020. This significant jump warrants attention and further investigation into potential causes and prevention strategies.
Robbery trends show a generally positive direction. In 2010, there were 48 robberies, which decreased to 27 in 2020, a 43.75% reduction. When adjusted for population, this represents a decrease from 2.58 to 1.37 robberies per 1,000 people. However, the city's share of state robberies increased from 0.99% in 2010 to 69.23% in 2020, suggesting that while local rates improved, they did so at a slower pace compared to the state overall.
Aggravated assault cases have remained relatively stable. There were 26 cases in 2010, which decreased slightly to 24 in 2020. Accounting for population growth, this translates to a reduction from 1.40 to 1.22 assaults per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.33% to 35.82% over this period, indicating that the city's assault rates decreased less rapidly than the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 8,905 per square mile in 2010 to 9,449 in 2020, violent crime rates per capita generally decreased, suggesting improved safety despite higher density. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. For instance, as the white population percentage increased from 41% in 2013 to 42% in 2020, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Takoma Park may see a further reduction in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 55 incidents annually. This projection assumes continued population growth and maintenance of current crime prevention strategies.
In summary, Takoma Park has shown overall improvement in violent crime rates relative to its population growth over the past decade. While certain categories like rape have seen concerning increases, others like robbery have significantly decreased. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have a complex relationship with crime rates, warranting ongoing monitoring and targeted prevention efforts to maintain and improve public safety.
