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Violent Crime Trends in Bells, Tennessee: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bells, located in Tennessee, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable overall decrease of 11.76% from 17 incidents in 2010 to 15 in 2022. During this same period, the population grew by 5.93%, from 3,660 in 2010 to 3,877 in 2022, suggesting a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Regarding murder trends, the city has maintained an exceptionally low rate, with only one reported case in 2011 throughout the entire period. This single incident represented 0.35% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.25 in 2011 and has remained at zero for all other years. This consistently low murder rate, despite population growth, indicates a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have shown some fluctuation over the years. The city reported one case each in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2018, 2020, and 2021, with a significant increase to three cases in 2022. This latest figure represents a 200% increase from the previous year and accounts for 0.19% of the state's rape cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.26 in 2021 to 0.77 in 2022, a concerning trend that warrants attention.
Robbery trends have been relatively low and inconsistent. The city experienced a peak of three robberies in 2010 and 2011, representing 0.04% of the state's robberies. However, robbery incidents have since decreased, with only sporadic occurrences in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has consequently dropped from 0.82 in 2010 to zero in 2022, indicating an improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 28 in 2012, representing 0.12% of the state's aggravated assaults. Since then, there has been a general downward trend, with some fluctuations. In 2022, 12 aggravated assaults were reported, accounting for 0.05% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.55 in 2010 to 3.09 in 2022, showing a slight improvement despite population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,543 per square mile in 2010 to 1,635 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed some fluctuations but ultimately decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain relatively stable crime rates despite increasing density.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued fluctuation in overall violent crime numbers, with a potential slight decrease. The rape rate may stabilize after the recent spike, while aggravated assaults are likely to remain the primary concern, potentially averaging around 10-12 incidents per year.
In summary, Bells has shown resilience in managing violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in robbery rates, while aggravated assault remains the primary challenge. The recent increase in rape cases warrants close monitoring and preventive measures. Overall, the city's violent crime trends suggest a generally stable environment with opportunities for further improvement in public safety initiatives.
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