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Violent Crime Trends in Belleville, Illinois: A Demographic Shift and Crime Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Belleville, Illinois, a city with a rich history dating back to 1814, has experienced notable shifts in its violent crime landscape over recent years. From 2015 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 30.5% from 236 to 164 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined slightly by 1.7%, from 63,375 to 62,307 residents.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low but saw some variation. In 2015, there were no reported murders, but by 2022, there were 2 cases. This translates to an increase from 0 to 0.032 murders per 1,000 people. The city's share of state murders also rose from 0% in 2015 to 0.26% in 2022. While any increase in murders is concerning, the numbers remain relatively low for a city of this size.
Rape incidents showed a fluctuating trend. In 2015, there were 36 reported cases, which decreased to 34 in 2022. However, the rate per 1,000 people remained nearly constant, changing from 0.57 to 0.55. The city's percentage of state rape cases decreased slightly from 1.06% to 0.96% over this period. This suggests that while the absolute number of rapes decreased, the city maintained a fairly consistent proportion of the state's total rape cases.
Robbery cases saw a significant decline. In 2015, there were 57 robberies, which dropped to just 12 in 2022, representing a 78.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.90 to 0.19. Notably, the city's share of state robberies decreased dramatically from 0.42% to 0.11%, indicating a much faster decline in robberies compared to the state average.
Aggravated assault cases showed more variability. There were 143 cases in 2015, which decreased to 116 in 2022, a 18.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 2.26 to 1.86. However, the city's percentage of state aggravated assaults increased from 0.6% to 0.91%, suggesting that while assaults decreased in the city, they decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
A strong correlation appears to exist between the city's changing racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population decreased from 71% in 2015 to 60% in 2022, and the black population increased from 22% to 28%, there was an overall decrease in violent crimes. This suggests that racial demographic shifts alone do not necessarily lead to increased crime rates.
Population density showed a moderate correlation with violent crime rates. As density decreased from 2,727 people per square mile in 2015 to 2,681 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime, suggesting that lower population density might contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates if current social and economic conditions persist. Robberies are expected to continue their sharp decline, while aggravated assaults may stabilize or see a slight increase in their share of state totals.
In conclusion, Belleville has shown encouraging trends in violent crime reduction, particularly in robberies. The city's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to be influencing factors in these crime trends. While challenges remain, especially in addressing aggravated assaults, the overall direction suggests improving safety conditions for residents. Continued monitoring and targeted interventions could help maintain and potentially accelerate these positive trends in the coming years.
