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Violent Crime Trends in Chillicothe: A Decade of Stability Amidst Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Chillicothe, located in Illinois, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased slightly from 21 to 22, representing a 4.76% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 6,458 to 6,214, a 3.78% reduction, indicating a slight divergence between crime rates and population trends.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero from 2012 to 2022, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter throughout this period. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially given the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murders.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability over the years. In 2012, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 5 cases in 2016 and 2019, before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.81 in 2019 and fell to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.14% in 2016 before declining to 0% in 2022. This volatility in rape statistics suggests a need for continued vigilance in prevention and support services.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively low but variable. From 1 case in 2012, robberies peaked at 3 cases in 2016, before settling at 2 cases in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.15 in 2012 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has remained small but increased from 0.01% in 2012 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to state robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. Cases increased from 19 in 2012 to 20 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.94 in 2012 to 3.22 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases doubled from 0.08% in 2012 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting a growing significance of this crime type relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,224 per square mile in 2012 to 1,178 in 2022, violent crimes showed a slight increase. This suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect a continuation of the slight upward trend in overall violent crimes. Based on the historical data, we could project approximately 23-25 violent crimes annually by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the predominant category.
In summary, Chillicothe has maintained a relatively stable violent crime rate over the past decade, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The absence of murders, the variability in rape and robbery cases, and the persistent presence of aggravated assaults characterize the city's crime landscape. The increasing proportion of state aggravated assaults occurring in the city, despite its decreasing population, suggests a need for focused crime prevention strategies in this area. As the city moves forward, addressing the factors contributing to violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, will be crucial for enhancing public safety and community well-being.
