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Violent Crime Trends in Bellefontaine Neighbors: A Decade of Increasing Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bellefontaine Neighbors, a city in Missouri, has experienced a significant increase in violent crime rates over the past decade, despite a decreasing population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes rose by 83.1%, from 71 to 130 incidents, while the city's population decreased by 4.7%, from 14,792 to 14,099 residents. This disproportionate rise in crime relative to population changes suggests a concerning trend for the city.
Murder rates in Bellefontaine Neighbors have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there were no reported murders, but by 2022, there were 2 cases, representing 0.37% of the state's total murders. The murder rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 to 0.14 during this period. The most significant spike occurred in 2018 with 4 murders, indicating a rate of 0.32 per 1,000 residents. These fluctuations suggest an overall increasing trend in murder rates, despite some year-to-year variations.
Rape incidents in the city have shown inconsistent patterns. The number of reported rapes remained at 3 in both 2010 and 2022, with the rate per 1,000 residents slightly increasing from 0.20 to 0.21 due to population decrease. The highest number of rapes was reported in 2015 and 2016 with 6 cases each year. These fluctuations indicate no clear long-term trend in rape incidents.
Robbery trends in Bellefontaine Neighbors show a general decline over the years. The number of robberies remained at 16 in both 2010 and 2022, with the rate per 1,000 residents increasing slightly from 1.08 to 1.13 due to population decrease. The peak was in 2016 with 22 robberies, or 1.70 per 1,000 residents. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend suggests a stabilization in robbery rates in recent years.
Aggravated assault cases have shown a significant increase over time. In 2010, there were 52 cases, which more than doubled to 111 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased dramatically from 3.52 to 7.87 during this period. The peak was in 2020 with 176 cases, or 12.98 per 1,000 residents. This trend indicates a concerning rise in aggravated assaults, particularly in recent years.
A strong correlation appears to exist between the rise in violent crime rates and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of Black residents increased from 75% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in violent crime. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse relationship between population density and crime rates, as the density decreased from 3,361 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,204 in 2022, while crime rates generally increased.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it is projected that by 2029, Bellefontaine Neighbors may see a continued increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 180-200 total incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are likely to contribute the most to this increase, potentially reaching 140-150 cases per year. Murder rates may stabilize around 2-3 cases annually, while rape and robbery rates might show modest increases to about 4-5 and 18-20 cases per year, respectively.
In conclusion, Bellefontaine Neighbors has experienced a concerning upward trend in violent crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults, despite a slight decrease in population. The changing demographic composition and decreasing population density appear to correlate with these crime trends. As the city moves forward, addressing these rising crime rates, especially aggravated assaults, should be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the safety and well-being of residents.
