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Property Crime Trends in Warrensburg, Missouri: A Study of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Warrensburg, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 15.95% from 627 to 527 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 2.19% from 21,518 to 21,990 residents, suggesting a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 115 burglaries, which decreased to 37 by 2022, representing a 67.83% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 5.34 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.68 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.56% in 2018 before declining to 0.28% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a more moderate decline. From 501 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 461 in 2022, a 7.98% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 23.28 in 2010 to 20.96 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.44% in 2010 to 0.59% in 2022, indicating that while local rates decreased, they did so at a slower pace than the state average. This trend suggests that while progress has been made, larceny theft remains a persistent challenge for local law enforcement.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a more volatile trend. Starting at 11 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 61 in 2014 before settling at 29 in 2022, representing a 163.64% increase over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.51 in 2010 to 1.32 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating a growing concern in this area relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated considerably. From 7 incidents in 2010, it reached a low of 0 in 2017 before rising to 1 in 2022, an overall decrease of 85.71%. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.33 in 2010 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.67% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting that arson has become less prevalent in the city compared to state averages.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As the median income rose from $43,815 in 2013 to $53,312 in 2022, a 21.68% increase, the overall property crime rate decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary is expected to maintain its downward trend, potentially reaching less than 30 incidents annually. Larceny theft is projected to stabilize around 450 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft may continue to fluctuate but is likely to remain below 40 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with potentially less than 5 incidents per year.
In summary, Warrensburg has experienced a general decline in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in burglary and arson rates, while larceny theft remains the most prevalent property crime. The increase in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further contribute to crime reduction efforts in the city.
