Robbery trends in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 22 robberies reported, which increased to a peak of 41 in 2018 before declining to 23 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has ranged from 0.65 to 1.09 during this period. Notably, the city's contribution to state robbery statistics has increased significantly, from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2022, suggesting that while overall numbers have remained relatively stable, the city's share of state robberies has grown considerably.

Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 32 cases reported, which rose to 39 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents has fluctuated between 0.71 and 1.08 during this period. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has also increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.30% in 2022, indicating that aggravated assaults in the city are growing at a faster rate than the state average.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 12,749 per square mile in 2010 to 14,961 in 2022, violent crime rates generally trended upward. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changing racial demographics and crime trends. The Hispanic population increased from 35% in 2013 to 45% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 59% to 47% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, though causation cannot be inferred from correlation alone.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued modest increase in violent crimes. Rape and aggravated assault cases are likely to show the most significant increases, potentially reaching 12-15 rape cases and 45-50 aggravated assault cases annually. Robbery rates may stabilize or show a slight decrease, potentially ranging between 20-25 cases per year. Murder rates are expected to remain low, with 0-2 cases per year.

In summary, Aventura has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While the overall number of violent crimes has increased, this growth has largely mirrored population increases. The most concerning trends are in rape and aggravated assault cases, which have shown more substantial increases relative to population growth. The city's increasing contribution to state crime statistics, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults, suggests that local law enforcement may need to allocate additional resources to address these issues. As Aventura continues to grow and diversify, maintaining public safety will likely require targeted strategies to address these evolving crime patterns.