Robbery trends in the city present a more complex picture. While there were 461 robberies in 2010, this number decreased to 242 by 2022, representing a 47.5% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.293 in 2010 to 1.159 in 2022. Despite this decrease, Fayetteville's share of state-wide robberies has remained relatively stable, ranging from 4.58% to 8.6%, indicating that the reduction in robberies may be part of a broader state-wide trend.

Aggravated assault has seen the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 566 aggravated assaults, which surged to 1,677 by 2022, a staggering 196.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.815 in 2010 to 8.029 in 2022. Fayetteville's contribution to state-wide aggravated assaults grew from 3.36% to 6.98% during this period, suggesting that the city's increase in aggravated assaults has outpaced the state average.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong positive correlation between the rise in violent crimes and the increase in median rent, which grew from $849 in 2013 to $1,160 in 2022. This could suggest that economic pressures might be contributing to the rise in violent crime. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the increase in violent crimes and the slight decrease in the white population percentage, which fell from 41% in 2013 to 35% in 2022, while the Black population remained relatively stable around 41-42%.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the upward trend. Based on the historical data, it's projected that by 2029, Fayetteville could see total violent crimes reaching approximately 2,500 incidents annually. This forecast assumes that current trends and conditions persist without significant interventions or changes in socio-economic factors.

In summary, Fayetteville has experienced a substantial increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and murders. While robberies have decreased, the overall trend points to a growing challenge with violent crime. The correlations with rising median rent and changing demographics suggest complex socio-economic factors at play. As the city looks toward the future, addressing these rising crime rates will likely be a critical focus for local authorities and community leaders in Fayetteville.