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Violent Crime Surge in Centralia, Illinois: A Decade of Disproportionate Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Centralia, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small city of just over 17,000 residents has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates against a backdrop of gradual population decline. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes increased by 57.4%, from 101 to 159 incidents, while the population decreased by 6.5%, from 18,986 to 17,745 residents.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability over the years. In 2010 and 2013, there were no reported murders, but the city saw spikes in 2011 (1 case) and 2015 (3 cases). The murder rate per 1,000 people reached its peak in 2015 at 0.16, before dropping to zero again in 2020. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate has been inconsistent, ranging from 0% in several years to a high of 0.47% in 2015. This volatility in murder rates, especially given the small population, suggests that even a single incident can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. The number of reported rapes increased from 13 in 2010 to 23 in 2020, representing a 76.9% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.68 in 2010 to 1.30 in 2020. Moreover, the city's contribution to the state's total rape cases increased from 0.76% in 2010 to 0.67% in 2020, indicating that the growth in rape cases outpaced the state average. This trend suggests a need for targeted interventions and support services for sexual assault victims in the community.
Robbery trends in the city have been more volatile. The number of robberies fluctuated from 13 in 2010 to a high of 37 in 2017, before settling at 23 in 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.68 in 2010 to 1.30 in 2020. The city's share of state robberies also rose significantly, from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2020, indicating that robbery has become a more prominent issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Aggravated assault has shown the most substantial increase among violent crimes. The number of cases rose from 75 in 2010 to 113 in 2020, a 50.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.95 in 2010 to 6.37 in 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases grew from 0.3% to 0.41% over the same period, suggesting that this form of violent crime has become increasingly prevalent in the community.
A strong correlation exists between the increase in violent crimes and the gradual decrease in population density. As the population density decreased from 2,315 per square mile in 2010 to 2,163 in 2020, violent crimes increased. This inverse relationship could indicate that as the city became less densely populated, social cohesion may have weakened, potentially contributing to increased crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Centralia may see its violent crime rate continue to increase if current trends persist. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach around 200-220 incidents annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common form of violent crime.
In summary, Centralia has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes, particularly in rape and aggravated assault, despite a declining population. The disproportionate growth in the city's contribution to state crime statistics for various offenses suggests that local factors may be driving these trends. As the city moves forward, addressing these crime trends through targeted community policing, social programs, and economic development initiatives will be crucial for improving public safety and quality of life for Centralia's residents.
