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Rising Violent Crime Trends in Abingdon: A Small Illinois City's Struggle
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Abingdon, Illinois: A Case Study in Violent Crime Trends Abingdon, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. In 2020, the city recorded a total of 11 violent crimes, with a population of 3,657.5 residents. Over the years leading up to 2020, the population experienced fluctuations, ultimately growing from 3,446 in 2010 to 3,527 in 2022, representing a 2.35% increase over this period.
The murder rate in Abingdon has remained consistently at zero, with no reported cases in 2020. This statistic is particularly noteworthy given the population changes over time. The city's murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people has remained stable, indicating a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides. The percentage of state crime for murder stands at 0%, suggesting that Abingdon does not contribute to Illinois' overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city show a concerning figure, with 2 reported cases in 2020. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.55 per 1,000 people. The percentage of state crime for rape is 0.06%, indicating that while the number is small, it does contribute to the state's overall rape statistics. This figure suggests a need for continued vigilance and preventive measures in the community.
Robbery in Abingdon is relatively low, with only 1 reported case in 2020. This equates to a rate of about 0.27 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics is minimal, at 0.01% of the state total. This low rate suggests that property-related violent crimes are not a significant issue in the city.
Aggravated assault appears to be the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, with 8 reported cases in 2020. This translates to a rate of approximately 2.19 per 1,000 people. The city's aggravated assaults account for 0.03% of the state's total, indicating that while it's the most common violent crime locally, its impact on state-wide figures is relatively small.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with the city's racial composition. The data shows that as the white population percentage slightly decreased from 96% in 2019 to 91% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in violent crimes. This correlation suggests that changing demographics may have some influence on crime rates, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns persist, we might expect to see a slight increase in overall violent crimes by 2029 (five years from now). The model suggests that aggravated assaults could potentially rise to 10-12 cases annually, while rape and robbery incidents might fluctuate between 1-3 cases per year. However, the murder rate is predicted to remain at zero, continuing the city's trend of no homicides.
In summary, Abingdon's violent crime landscape is characterized by low rates of murder and robbery, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The slight increase in violent crimes correlating with demographic changes warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders. Despite these challenges, Abingdon maintains a relatively low crime rate compared to state averages, particularly in serious offenses like murder. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing aggravated assaults and addressing potential factors contributing to the slight uptick in overall violent crimes could help maintain the city's generally safe environment.
