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Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership: Clayton, Missouri's Dynamic Housing Market
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Clayton, located in Missouri, is a vibrant community known for its blend of residential and commercial areas. The city has experienced fluctuations in homeownership rates and significant changes in average home and rent prices over the past decade. This analysis will explore these trends and their relationships.
The homeownership rate in Clayton has shown a gradual decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, 57% of housing units were owner-occupied. This percentage increased slightly to 60% in 2018 but then decreased to 54% by 2022. During this same period, average home prices in Clayton have steadily increased. In 2013, the average home price was $499,578, rising to $751,776 by 2022, representing a 50.5% increase over nine years.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Clayton shows some correlation. As interest rates remained low from 2013 to 2016 (ranging from 0.09% to 0.4%), homeownership rates stayed relatively stable at around 58%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), homeownership rates also increased slightly to 60% in 2018. Interestingly, despite very low interest rates in 2020 and 2021 (0.38% and 0.08% respectively), homeownership rates began to decline, reaching 54% by 2022 when interest rates rose to 1.68%.
The percentage of renters in Clayton has increased from 43% in 2013 to 46% in 2022. This trend coincides with a significant increase in average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $1,237, which rose to $1,856 by 2022, marking a 50% increase. The most dramatic jump occurred between 2016 and 2017, when average rent increased from $1,272 to $1,813, a 42.5% rise in a single year. This sharp increase in rent prices may have contributed to the slight decrease in the renter population percentage from 42% in 2016 to 40% in 2018, before climbing back up to 46% by 2022.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Clayton reached $765,969 in 2023 and further increased to $789,811 in 2024. This represents a 1.9% year-over-year increase from 2022 to 2023 and a 3.1% increase from 2023 to 2024. The federal interest rate also saw a significant rise, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, the highest levels since 2007.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it's anticipated that average home prices in Clayton will continue to rise, potentially reaching around $900,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the consistent upward trend observed over the past decade. For rent prices, the forecast suggests a continued increase, potentially reaching an average of $2,200 to $2,400 per month by 2029, assuming the trend of the past few years continues.
In summary, Clayton has experienced a gradual shift towards a higher percentage of renters, coupled with substantial increases in both average home prices and rent. The relationship between interest rates and homeownership rates has been complex, with recent years showing a decline in homeownership despite fluctuating interest rates. The steep rise in both home prices and rent suggests a competitive and potentially challenging housing market for residents of Clayton in the coming years.
