Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Alton, Missouri: A Small City's Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Alton, Missouri, a small city with a population of 1,894 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, with a notable spike in 2012 followed by a sharp decline. The city's population grew by 4% from 1,974 in 2010 to 2,108 in 2017, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent. In 2010 and 2011, there was one burglary each year. However, 2012 saw a dramatic increase to 13 burglaries, representing 0.04% of the state's total. This spike equates to approximately 5.62 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2017, burglaries had decreased to just one incident. This fluctuation suggests that while burglary was a significant concern in 2012, it has since become less prevalent.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed variability. Two cases were reported in both 2010 and 2011, but 2012 saw a substantial increase to 22 incidents, accounting for 0.02% of the state's total. This spike represents about 9.51 thefts per 1,000 residents. By 2017, larceny-theft had decreased to five incidents, or approximately 2.37 per 1,000 residents. This trend indicates that while larceny-theft remains the most common property crime in the city, its occurrence has significantly reduced since the 2012 peak.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively low. One incident was reported in 2010, none in 2011, and two in 2012, representing 0.01% of the state's total. No motor vehicle thefts were reported in 2015 and 2017. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem in the community, with rates consistently below 1 per 1,000 residents.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city. Only one case was reported in 2012, accounting for 0.1% of the state's total. No arsons were reported in other years with available data. This indicates that arson is not a significant concern for the community, with rates consistently at or near zero per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. The spike in property crimes in 2012 coincided with a period of increased population density (1,474 people per square mile). As population density decreased in subsequent years, property crime rates also declined. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $20,945 in 2013 to $25,725 in 2017, property crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's likely that property crime rates will remain relatively low, assuming current trends continue. The city may experience occasional fluctuations, but overall, property crime rates are expected to stay below the 2012 peak levels. Factors such as increasing median income and stabilizing population density could contribute to maintaining lower crime rates.
In summary, Alton has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates, with a notable peak in 2012 followed by a general decline. The city's relatively small population means that even a few incidents can cause substantial changes in crime rates per 1,000 residents. The overall trend suggests an improving situation, with lower crime rates in recent years correlating with increased median income and more stable population density. These findings indicate that Alton has made progress in addressing property crime issues, though continued vigilance will be necessary to maintain this positive trend.
