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Rising Home Values and High Ownership Rates: Shepherd's Unique Housing Market
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Shepherd, Montana, is a small but growing community located in Yellowstone County. This charming town has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade, reflecting broader economic trends and local development patterns.
The ownership percentage in Shepherd has shown a remarkable upward trend, particularly in recent years. In 2013, the homeownership rate was 90%, which increased steadily to reach an impressive 97% by 2022. This surge in homeownership coincides with a substantial rise in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $232,643, and by 2022, it had nearly doubled to $442,334, representing a 90% increase over this period.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Shepherd appears to follow the well-established trend of lower interest rates encouraging homeownership. For instance, when interest rates were at historic lows between 2020 and 2021 (0.38% and 0.08% respectively), homeownership rates in Shepherd reached their highest levels, climbing from 92% in 2020 to 96% in 2021, and further to 97% in 2022. This correlation suggests that the low-interest-rate environment likely made home financing more accessible for residents.
Conversely, the percentage of renters in Shepherd has decreased significantly over the years, from 15% in 2016 to just 3% in 2022. Interestingly, this decline in the renter population has been accompanied by a decrease in average rent prices. The average rent peaked at $1,124 in 2013-2015 but has since fallen to $856 in 2022. This trend could be attributed to the strong preference for homeownership in the community, potentially reducing demand for rental properties.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Shepherd continued its upward trajectory, reaching $459,214 in 2023 and further increasing to $473,523 in 2024. This represents a 3.8% year-over-year increase from 2022 to 2023, and a 3.1% increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may impact future homeownership trends in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it's anticipated that average home prices in Shepherd will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. By 2029, average home prices could reach approximately $550,000 to $600,000, assuming a conservative annual growth rate of 3-5%. Average rent prices, which have been declining, may stabilize or see a slight increase, potentially reaching around $900-$950 by 2029, as the rental market adjusts to the high homeownership rates.
In summary, Shepherd has experienced a remarkable increase in homeownership rates, reaching 97% in 2022, coupled with substantial growth in average home prices. The community has benefited from low interest rates in recent years, which likely contributed to the surge in homeownership. However, with rising interest rates in 2023 and 2024, it will be interesting to observe how this affects future homeownership trends and housing prices in this thriving Montana community.
