Loading Content...
Randleman's Property Crime Trends: A Decade of Fluctuations and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Randleman, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 531 incidents in 2014 before declining to 141 in 2018, representing a 73.4% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the city's population experienced modest growth, increasing from 9,321 in 2010 to 9,565 in 2022, a 2.6% rise.
The burglary rate in the city showed notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 51 burglaries, which increased to 94 in 2016, before dropping sharply to 32 in 2018. This represents a 37.3% decrease from 2010 to 2018. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.47 in 2010 to 3.48 in 2018. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2018, suggesting a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also exhibited significant changes. In 2010, there were 208 larceny-theft incidents, which peaked at 447 in 2014 before declining to 104 in 2018, a 50% decrease from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 22.31 in 2010 to 11.32 in 2018. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2018, indicating an improvement relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively low throughout the period, with slight fluctuations. There were 5 incidents in 2010, dropping to 1 in 2014, and returning to 5 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents remained stable at approximately 0.54. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2018, suggesting a minor relative increase compared to state trends.
Arson data was limited, with only one reported incident in 2011 and another in 2016. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. However, it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of state arson cases (0.11% in 2011 and 0.17% in 2016), despite the city's small size.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes from 2014 to 2018 coincided with a steady increase in median income, rising from $40,240 in 2014 to $43,928 in 2018. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 65% in 2014 to 70% in 2018, potentially contributing to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now) suggests a continued downward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease by an additional 20-30% by 2029, potentially reaching around 100-110 incidents annually. This forecast assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Randleman has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2018, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend correlates with improvements in median income and home ownership rates. While the city's share of state property crimes has fluctuated, it generally remains low, reflecting positively on local crime prevention efforts. The projected continued decrease in property crimes over the next five years suggests a promising outlook for public safety in Randleman, potentially enhancing its appeal as a residential community.
