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Property Crime Trends in Yadkinville: A Tale of Fluctuating Burglaries and Declining Larceny
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Yadkinville, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 14.2% from 162 in 2010 to 139 in 2021. During this same period, the population increased by 1.7%, from 6,775 in 2010 to 6,893 in 2021, suggesting a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to 15 in 2018, but then dramatically increased to 108 in 2021. This represents a 217.6% increase from 2010 to 2021. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 5.02 in 2010 to 15.67 in 2021, indicating a substantial increase in burglary incidents relative to population growth. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.42% in 2021, suggesting a disproportionate rise in burglaries compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, on the other hand, showed a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 126 larceny thefts, which declined to 28 in 2021, representing a 77.8% decrease. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 18.6 in 2010 to 4.06 in 2021. The city's share of state larceny thefts also decreased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2021, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively stable, with slight fluctuations. There were 2 motor vehicle thefts in 2010, which increased to 3 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents changed minimally from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low but showed a slight increase from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2021.
Arson incidents in the city were infrequent but showed some variation. There were no reported arsons in 2010, but 1 case was reported in 2021. The arson rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2021. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2021, indicating a slight uptick in this rare crime type.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The dramatic increase in burglaries coincided with a period of rising median income, which grew from $35,741 in 2013 to $52,667 in 2021. This suggests that increased affluence may have made the area more attractive to burglars. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 68% in 2013 to 73% in 2021, which could potentially be linked to the rise in burglaries as there may have been more valuable targets.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests that if current trends continue, burglaries may continue to increase, potentially reaching around 150-160 incidents annually. Larceny theft is predicted to stabilize at the lower levels seen in recent years, possibly ranging between 25-35 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft and arson are expected to remain low but may show slight increases, potentially reaching 4-5 and 1-2 incidents per year, respectively.
In summary, Yadkinville has experienced a significant shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The most notable change has been the substantial increase in burglaries, which has occurred despite overall improvements in economic indicators. This trend, juxtaposed with the decrease in larceny thefts, suggests a changing pattern of criminal behavior that may require targeted prevention strategies. As the city continues to grow and evolve, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
