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Property Crime Trends in Willoughby Hills: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Willoughby Hills, Ohio, has witnessed a notable shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 34.8%, dropping from 178 to 116 incidents. This reduction occurred despite a population growth of 5.4%, from 9,457 to 9,972 residents. The juxtaposition of falling crime rates against a growing population presents an intriguing scenario for analysis.
Burglary rates in Willoughby Hills have shown a significant decline over the observed period. In 2012, there were 41 reported burglaries, which dropped to just 9 in 2021, before rising slightly to 18 in 2022. This represents a 56.1% decrease from 2012 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.33 per 1,000 residents in 2012 to 1.81 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, from 0.07% in 2012 to 0.04% in 2021, before increasing to 0.08% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglary rates have generally improved, recent years have seen a slight uptick.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Willoughby Hills, has also seen a substantial reduction. In 2012, there were 126 reported cases, which decreased to 65 in 2021, before rising to 82 in 2022. This represents a 34.9% decrease from 2012 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 13.32 in 2012 to 8.22 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.11% in 2012 to 0.07% in 2021, then slightly increased to 0.08% in 2022. This trend indicates a general improvement in larceny-theft rates, despite a recent minor increase.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a more complex pattern in Willoughby Hills. There were 11 cases in 2012, which increased to 12 in 2021, and further to 16 in 2022. This represents a 45.5% increase over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.16 in 2012 to 1.60 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.09% in 2012 to 0.07% in 2022. This trend suggests that while motor vehicle theft has increased locally, it has not grown as rapidly as the state average.
Arson cases in Willoughby Hills have been rare, with no reported cases in 2012 and 2021, and only one case reported in 2022. This single case in 2022 represented 0.12% of state arson cases, indicating that arson is not a significant concern for the city compared to other property crimes.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $65,928 in 2013 to $77,721 in 2022, a 17.9% rise. This economic improvement coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates.
Population density in Willoughby Hills increased from 878 per square mile in 2012 to 926 in 2022, a 5.5% rise. This modest increase in density does not appear to have significantly impacted property crime rates, as the overall trend remained downward despite the higher concentration of residents.
Racial demographics in Willoughby Hills show some shifts, with the white population decreasing from 75% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, while the Black population increased from 17% to 20% over the same period. The Hispanic population also saw a slight increase from 1% to 4%. These demographic changes coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting that the city has managed to maintain improving crime rates despite demographic shifts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates in Willoughby Hills. Burglary and larceny-theft may continue their general downward trend but at a slower rate, while motor vehicle theft could see a continued increase if current patterns persist. Arson is likely to remain infrequent.
In summary, Willoughby Hills has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement has occurred alongside population growth, increasing median income, and demographic shifts. However, the recent upticks in some crime categories and the projected stabilization of crime rates suggest that continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining and improving upon these gains in the coming years.
