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Property Crime Trends in White Hall, Arkansas: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
White Hall, located in Arkansas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 30.34%, from 89 to 62 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 5.47%, from 7,293 to 6,894 residents. This analysis will delve into specific property crime trends and their relationship to various demographic factors.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which increased sharply to 42 in 2018, before declining to 22 in 2022. This represents a 450% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.55 in 2010 to 3.19 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also increased dramatically, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary incidents despite its small size.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a downward trend. In 2010, there were 80 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 32 by 2022, marking a 60% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.97 in 2010 to 4.64 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-thefts decreased only slightly, from 0.15% to 0.07%, suggesting that the reduction in larceny-thefts was part of a broader statewide trend.
Motor vehicle theft incidents have fluctuated but show an overall increase. From 5 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 8 in 2022, a 60% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.69 to 1.16. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.13% to 0.15%, indicating a slightly disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one incident reported annually from 2013 to 2017, and none reported in other years. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or correlations with population or state percentages.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and burglary rates. As median income increased from $61,768 in 2013 to $70,129 in 2021, burglary rates generally declined, with some fluctuations. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the changing racial demographics and property crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 82% in 2013 to 69% in 2022, there was an overall increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to plateau around 20-25 incidents annually, while larceny-thefts may continue a slight downward trend, potentially reaching 25-30 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively stable at 7-9 incidents annually.
In summary, White Hall has experienced diverse trends across different property crime categories over the past decade. While larceny-thefts have significantly decreased, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts have shown concerning increases. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and economic factors, paint a complex picture of the city's evolving crime landscape. The forecasted stabilization of crime rates offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for White Hall's future, but continued vigilance and targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining community safety.
