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Violent Crime Trends in Clarksville, Arkansas: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Clarksville, Arkansas, a city with a rich history in the Arkansas River Valley, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 28 in 2010, peaking at 47 in 2017, and decreasing to 21 by 2022, marking a 25% overall decrease. During this same period, the city's population grew from 10,022 in 2010 to 11,326 in 2022, representing a 13% increase.
Murder trends in the city have remained relatively stable, with most years reporting zero murders. However, there was a notable spike in 2021 with 2 murders, representing 0.87% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.17 murders per 1,000 people in 2021, a significant increase from the typical zero rate. Despite this outlier, the overall murder rate has remained consistently low, indicating a generally safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have shown considerable fluctuation over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 5 in 2010 to a peak of 22 in 2017, before declining to 8 in 2022. This represents a 60% increase over the entire period. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.50 in 2010 to a high of 2.00 in 2017, before decreasing to 0.71 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases has varied, reaching a high of 1.63% in 2017 and settling at 0.50% in 2022. This trend suggests a period of heightened concern followed by improved conditions or reporting practices.
Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively low throughout the period. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 4 annually, with the highest count occurring in 2015 and 2016. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.37 (in 2016). The city's contribution to state robbery cases peaked at 0.22% in 2015 and 2019 but dropped to 0% in 2021 and 2022. This indicates that robbery is not a significant concern in the city compared to other violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated from a low of 6 in 2014 to a high of 24 in 2017. In 2022, there were 13 reported cases, representing a 41% decrease from the 2010 figure of 22. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, peaking at 2.19 in 2017 and decreasing to 1.15 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases has generally remained below 0.3%, with the highest percentage (0.28%) occurring in 2010.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 550 per square mile in 2010 to 621 in 2022, there were corresponding fluctuations in crime rates, particularly noticeable in the peak crime years of 2016-2017 when density was also rising. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the increasing Asian population (from 1% in 2013 to 6% in 2022) and the overall decrease in violent crimes during the same period.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. The model suggests that aggravated assaults could potentially decrease to around 10-12 cases annually, while rape incidents might stabilize at 6-8 per year. Robbery and murder rates are expected to remain low, with possible years of zero incidents for both crimes.
In conclusion, Clarksville has shown a complex but generally improving violent crime landscape over the past decade. The most significant discoveries include the overall decrease in violent crimes despite population growth, the fluctuating but ultimately decreasing rape rates, and the consistently low murder and robbery rates. These trends, coupled with the projected continued decrease in violent crimes, suggest that Clarksville is becoming increasingly safer. However, the city should remain vigilant, particularly in addressing aggravated assaults and rape incidents, which have shown the most variability over the years.
