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Property Crime Trends in West Yellowstone: Gateway Town Faces Fluctuating Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
West Yellowstone, Montana, a small community covering just 0.91 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 4 to 12, representing a 200% increase. During the same period, the population decreased slightly from 1,381 to 1,353, a 2% decline. This divergence between crime rates and population trends suggests complex dynamics at play in this small Montana town.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there were no reported burglaries, but by 2017, the number peaked at 9 incidents, representing 0.44% of the state's total burglaries. This spike translated to approximately 6.81 burglaries per 1,000 residents. However, by 2022, burglaries decreased to just 1 incident, or 0.06% of the state's total. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was approximately 0.74, indicating a substantial improvement in recent years. These fluctuations suggest that while burglary has been a concern at times, recent efforts may have contributed to its reduction.
Larceny-theft has consistently been the most prevalent property crime in the area. In 2010, there were 3 incidents, which increased to a peak of 24 in 2018, representing 0.21% of the state's larceny-thefts. This peak equated to about 20.08 thefts per 1,000 residents. By 2022, the number decreased to 11 incidents, or 0.09% of the state's total, resulting in approximately 8.13 thefts per 1,000 residents. Despite the recent decrease, larceny-theft remains the primary property crime concern for the community.
Motor vehicle theft has remained relatively low throughout the observed period. The city experienced no motor vehicle thefts in several years, including 2022. The highest number recorded was 5 incidents in 2021, representing 0.26% of the state's total and approximately 3.75 thefts per 1,000 residents. The generally low numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant ongoing concern for the community, though occasional spikes warrant attention.
Arson incidents have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases indicates that it is not a prevalent issue in the community and suggests effective fire prevention measures or a lack of factors that typically contribute to arson incidents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density decreased from 1,521 per square mile in 2010 to 1,490 in 2022, which loosely corresponds with the overall decrease in population. Interestingly, the median income saw a significant increase from $41,809 in 2019 to $67,161 in 2021, before dropping to $46,615 in 2022. This income volatility doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with property crime rates. However, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 44% in 2013 to 62% in 2022, which could potentially contribute to the recent decrease in property crimes, as higher ownership rates are often associated with increased community investment and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the recent trends, burglary and motor vehicle theft are likely to remain low, while larceny-theft may continue to be the primary concern but with potential for further reduction if current community efforts are maintained.
In summary, West Yellowstone has experienced varying property crime trends over the past decade, with larceny-theft being the most persistent issue. The recent increases in homeownership and median income, coupled with a slight population decrease, may contribute to a more stable community environment. While challenges remain, the overall trajectory suggests potential for continued improvement in property crime rates, particularly if the community maintains its focus on crime prevention strategies and community engagement.
