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Property Crime Trends in Wentzville, Missouri: Navigating Growth and Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wentzville, Missouri, a rapidly growing city in the St. Louis metropolitan area, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 516 in 2010, peaking at 602 in 2012, and settling at 568 in 2022, representing a 10.1% increase over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the city's population grew substantially from 28,031 in 2010 to 45,386 in 2022, a remarkable 61.9% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 64 burglaries, which decreased to 34 by 2022, a 46.9% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.28 in 2010 to 0.75 in 2022, a significant 67.1% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.2% in 2010, peaking at 0.28% in 2019, and ending at 0.26% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglaries has remained relatively stable in recent years.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed more variability. In 2010, there were 444 larceny thefts, which increased to 496 by 2022, an 11.7% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.84 in 2010 to 10.93 in 2022, a 31% reduction. The city's share of state larceny thefts grew from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.64% in 2022, indicating that despite the lower rate per capita, the city's contribution to state larceny thefts has increased significantly.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal a concerning increase. In 2010, there were only 8 motor vehicle thefts, which rose dramatically to 38 by 2022, a 375% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.84 in 2022, a 189.7% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type has become a more significant issue for the city relative to the state.
Arson cases in the city have remained low but variable. The number of arsons fluctuated between 0 and 4 cases per year, with no clear trend. The rate per 1,000 residents and the city's share of state arsons similarly showed no consistent pattern due to the low numbers involved.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,339 per square mile in 2010 to 2,168 in 2022, property crime rates per capita generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization may have had a positive effect on crime prevention. The median income rose from $78,720 in 2013 to $94,013 in 2022, which coincided with periods of lower property crime rates, potentially indicating a relationship between economic prosperity and reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglaries are expected to remain relatively low, with a possible slight decrease. Larceny thefts may continue to increase in absolute numbers but decrease in rate per capita as the population grows. Motor vehicle thefts could continue their upward trend unless targeted interventions are implemented. Arson cases are likely to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Wentzville has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape amidst rapid population growth. While burglaries have significantly decreased and larceny thefts have shown mixed trends, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge for local law enforcement. The city's growing share of state property crimes, particularly in larceny thefts, suggests that as Wentzville expands, it may need to allocate more resources to crime prevention to maintain and improve public safety in line with its economic growth.
