Motor vehicle theft in the city was rare, with only one incident reported in 2015. This single occurrence represented 0.01% of the state's total and approximately 1.12 thefts per 1,000 residents. The absence of motor vehicle thefts in other years suggests that this type of crime is not a persistent issue in the community.

Arson cases were not reported in the available data for Urbana from 2010 to 2018. This absence of arson incidents is a positive indicator for community safety and property protection.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 928 per square mile in 2010 to 1,161 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime. The median income rose from $29,118 in 2013 to $50,714 in 2022, coinciding with a reduction in reported property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the low crime rates observed in recent years. Based on the decreasing trend and the absence of reported property crimes since 2016, it's projected that Urbana will maintain very low to zero property crime rates in the coming years, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain stable.

In summary, Urbana has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates over the observed period. The most notable discoveries include the sharp decline in burglaries and larceny-thefts, particularly post-2014, and the rarity of motor vehicle thefts and absence of arson cases. These trends, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, paint a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues, potentially through a combination of improved economic conditions, community engagement, and effective law enforcement strategies.