Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an upward trend. From a single incident in 2010, it rose to 4 in 2022, a 300% increase. When adjusted for population, this represents an increase from 0.20 thefts per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.76 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has also increased, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, with a notable peak of 0.06% in 2017. This trend suggests a growing concern for vehicle security in the area.

Arson cases have been rare in the city, with only two reported incidents over the 13-year period - one in 2016 and one in 2019. These isolated incidents represented 0.15% and 0.19% of state arson cases in their respective years. The rarity of these events makes it difficult to establish a meaningful trend, but it does indicate that arson is not a persistent problem in the city.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $26,199 in 2014 to $52,406 in 2022, overall property crime decreased from 30 to 24 incidents. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.

Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and property crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 96% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, and the black population increased from 1% to 5% over the same period, property crime rates showed some fluctuation but an overall decrease. This indicates that demographic shifts may have some influence on crime patterns, though the relationship is complex and requires careful interpretation.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect to see total property crimes fluctuate between 15 and 25 incidents annually, with burglaries remaining low (1-3 per year), larceny thefts ranging from 10-20 incidents, and motor vehicle thefts potentially stabilizing around 2-4 cases per year. Arson is expected to remain a rare occurrence.

In summary, Waynesboro has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in burglary rates, while motor vehicle theft has emerged as a growing concern. The correlations between crime rates, economic factors, and demographic shifts provide valuable insights for local policymakers and law enforcement. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community engagement could be key to sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.